Speaker: Vinicios Sant’Anna (California Polytechnic)

Paper Title: Immigrants and Native Flight: Geographic Extent and Heterogeneous Preferences (joint with Bence Boje-Kovacs, Ismir Mulalic, Albert Saiz, and Marie Louise Schultz-Nielsen)

Date: Wednesday 13th/May/2026 at 9:00 AM Eastern Time

Abstract: Is immigrant segregation caused by native flight or self-isolation? If the former, which natives avoid immigrants and which types? Previous literature on ethnic segregation has focused on static models that characterize steady equilibria of local white shares. However, these models ignore churn and local sorting among majority populations. We address these issues using a dynamic model that contemplates constant mobility in and out of the neighborhood by both natives and minorities. Using a matched panel containing all individuals and properties in Denmark from 1987 to 2017, we exploit the quasi-random nature of refugee placements and simulated, exogenous Markov chain predictions to generate experimental variation in local immigrant arrivals. We find strong evidence of white flight, as measured by increased churn and net losses among the majority population, even at the building level. However, not everyone is upset by the presence of minorities. Flight is stronger among the elderly and in reaction to the arrival of low-income immigrants, regardless of their cultural background. As neighborhoods become densely populated with immigrants, young, low-income native citizens without children continue to move in disproportionately, but so do other immigrants.

Registration: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_Kmk4ZTl5QfmnIEhHaQ8Euw#/registration